Jon Daneliesson investigates the history of financial crises and volatility.. He has identified the indicators of future crises to be credit growth and low volatility, which predicts credit growth and leverage. Risk measurement tends to use high frequency data to infer the likelihood of infrequent tail events. Political decisions made years in advance are drivers of the current macro-economic environment and ultimately financial crises. Long term risk management should rely on scenario analysis and developing resilience to survive potential negative events.
Morgan Housel interviews author, business consultant, and former professional poker player Annie Duke, to discuss the science and strategy of decision making with a focus on how to make decisions when you don’t have all the information.
- Identifying and understanding short- and long-run risks.
- Why what we measure in terms of risk needs to evolve.
- How artificial intelligence and technology may affect banks, regulators, and the stability of the financial system in ways we haven’t anticipated.
- The world is uncertain and surprising, and therefore difficult to predict one outcome accurately. Demand for certainty is not realistic.
- Develop broad range of possible scenarios, assess associated probabilities, and make plans to thrive in the widest range of outcomes.
- Getting wealthy may require taking risk, while staying risk often requires minimizing risk.
These online videos can be accessed at any time, up to the calendar year end if purchased in the first half of the year; or up the subsequent calendar year end if purchased in the second half of the year.
In order to purchase this course CFA Society Switzerland members and guests must set up and login with a CFA Institute Id#.
CHF 100 for non-members.
CHF 60 for members of CFA Society Switzerland.
Jon Danielsson is director of the Systemic Risk Centre at the London School of Economics. His research interests include systemic risk, long-term financial risk forecasting, and financial regulations. Dr. Danielsson is the author of two books, Financial Risk Forecasting: The Theory and Practice of Forecasting Market Risk with Implementation in R and MATLAB and Global Financial Systems: Stability and Risk, and he has written a number of articles in leading academic journals. He has a PhD in economics from Duke University, and his dissertation focused on stochastic volatility.
Annie Duke is an author, a corporate speaker, a consultant, and a decision strategist. For two decades, she was one of the top poker players in the world, winning more than $4 million in tournament poker, and she has written poker instruction and theory books, including the bestseller "Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts." Ms. Duke discusses decision making and critical thinking skills on her blog, Annie’s Analysis. Prior to becoming a professional poker player, she was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. She has told three stories for the Moth, one of which was selected as one of the organization’s top 50 stories and featured in its first-ever book. Ms. Duke co-founded Ante Up for Africa and appeared on The Celebrity Apprentice, where she raised money for Refugees International. She co-founded the Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to empower students through decision skills education. Ms. Duke is a member of the NationSwell Council, the board of directors of the Franklin Institute, the National Board of After-School All-Stars, and the board of the Renew Democracy Initiative.